DR
DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC (DRI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY2025 delivered resilient profitability despite weather headwinds: total sales rose 6.2% to $3.16B, reported diluted EPS $2.74 and adjusted diluted EPS $2.80, up 6.9% YoY, with restaurant-level EBITDA margin up 50 bps YoY to 21.1% .
- Same-restaurant sales were +0.7% (OG +0.6%, LongHorn +2.6%, Fine Dining -0.8%, Other Business -0.4%), with management noting ~100 bps weather drag and ~90 bps Thanksgiving shift impact; adjusted for these, same-restaurant sales were ~2.6% and sequentially improved .
- FY2025 outlook narrowed: adjusted diluted EPS $9.45–$9.52 (from $9.40–$9.60), weighted average diluted shares guided to 118.3M; other items maintained (sales ~$12.1B, SSS ~1.5%, capex ~$650M, inflation ~2.5%, tax ~12.5%) .
- Execution catalysts: Olive Garden “Fan Favorites” and Buy One, Take One LTO; first‑party delivery (Uber Direct) rolled systemwide at OG and piloted at Cheddar’s; smaller prototypes to accelerate unit growth. Management highlighted improved March trends and expects Q4 SSS >3% with adjusted EPS $2.88–$2.95 and sales $3.23–$3.26B .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- “Several brands set sales records during the holidays and on Valentine’s Day,” underpinning portfolio strength; segments grew total sales and segment margin .
- Olive Garden’s Fan Favorites (Steak Gorgonzola Alfredo, Stuffed Chicken Marsala) improved base traffic/sales; delivery rolled to nearly all OG units via Uber Direct with higher average check vs curbside and strong early uptake .
- LongHorn momentum persisted: same-restaurant sales +2.6% (5.0% adjusted for calendar/weather), segment margin +70 bps YoY to 19.4%; quality/operations (Grill Master program) drove all-time high “steaks grilled correctly” score .
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What Went Wrong
- Weather and Thanksgiving shift damped reported SSS by ~100 bps and ~90 bps respectively; Fine Dining SSS -0.8% (≈-1% adjusted), with persistent check management post holidays .
- Inflation step-up expected in Q4 to ~3%, with commodities (beef, chicken, seafood) turning inflationary; operating profit not seen growing materially YoY given pricing below inflation .
- Casual consumer below $50k income showed pullback; Fine Dining remained soft, with management cautious despite holiday strength .
Financial Results
Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Breakdown (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
*Does not include Ruth’s Chris and Chuy’s due to 16-month ownership rule .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “All of our segments grew total sales and segment profit margin… reinforcing the strength of our portfolio and the loyalty of our guests.”
- Olive Garden strategy: “Fan Favorites… significantly improved base traffic and sales trends… delivery available in all restaurants… with a higher check average than curbside.”
- LongHorn execution: “All-time high steaks grilled correctly score in the third quarter… investments in food quality continue to pay off.”
- Integration: “Chuy’s… HR platform conversion now; supply chain transitions begin in June; POS transition late summer.”
- Outlook tone: Adjusted EPS narrowed; Q4 inflation up to ~3%; Q4 adjusted EPS $2.88–$2.95 and SSS >3% .
Q&A Highlights
- Margin outlook and inflation: Q4 inflation ~3% vs low-2s in first three quarters; pricing below inflation implies flattish operating margins YoY .
- Delivery economics: Delivery checks ~20% higher than pickup; early 40–50% incrementality without significant awareness advertising; pilot units ~2.5% of sales .
- Tariff exposure: ~80% of cost basket domestically sourced; non-importer of record for imported items; mitigation via inventory and alternative sourcing .
- Value and marketing cadence: Marketing expected +10–20 bps YoY; connected TV/digital effectiveness rising; Uber co-funds limited TV campaign .
- Consumer segmentation: Growth in $50k–$100k cohort; under $50k casual consumer negative after weather adjustments; sentiment changes not tightly correlated to dining spend post‑COVID .
Estimates Context
- Versus consensus (S&P Global): Q3 revenue $3.158B vs $3.216B estimate* (miss); adjusted EPS $2.80 vs $2.795* (beat), reported EPS $2.74 (below adjusted comparator). Q2 revenue $2.890B vs $2.869B (beat); adjusted EPS $2.03 vs $2.023* (beat). Q1 revenue $2.757B vs $2.800B* (miss); adjusted EPS $1.75 vs $1.833* (miss). Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Modest top-line shortfall in Q3 driven by weather/calendar, offset by disciplined cost control and mix; estimate revisions may shift toward slightly stronger Q4 comps and EPS within the narrowed FY range, with near‑term inflation pressure acknowledged .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Cost discipline and scale advantages preserved margins despite weather; restaurant-level EBITDA margin expanded to 21.1% (+50 bps YoY) .
- Traffic catalysts in place: OG LTOs and first‑party delivery should support Q4 >3% SSS and adjusted EPS $2.88–$2.95; monitor the delivery awareness campaign impact .
- Inflation turning up in Q4; pricing kept below inflation—expect operating profit to be flat YoY; watch commodities (beef/chicken/seafood) .
- Portfolio strengthening: Smaller, cheaper prototypes performing at/above plan; supports higher unit growth trajectory into FY2026 (60–65 openings) .
- Tariff and macro risks manageable given domestic sourcing and supplier negotiation; consumer resilience persists, with <$50k cohort softer .
- FY2025 guidance narrowed around ~$9.49 adjusted EPS with shares at 118.3M; dividends maintained at $1.40/quarter and $548M buyback capacity remaining .
- Near-term positioning: Expect estimate fine-tuning toward Q4 comp/EPS ranges; setup favors operators executing value/news without deep discounting, benefiting OG and LongHorn .
Citations: Earnings press release and 8-K ; Earnings call transcript –; Prior quarter releases and transcript – –; Uber partnership release . Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.